Is the end nigh?

More noises coming from Libya that Gadhafi cannot hold on much longer. There are two reports, one from the BBC and another from the NY Slimes, that has information that requires some digestion. Please keep in mind that war correspondents have been free to travel with the “rebels” without molestation, but they have been captured and roughted up by Daffy goons. Some of the correspondents spent more than a month in prison in Tripoli. Some have been murdered by their Libyan Regime captors. At the same time, the correspondents in Tripoli have not been free to roam about the city, but they have minders. However, I have seen a few reports that have indicated that the correspondents have managed to give their minders the slip, from time to time. One correspondent from the Financial Times was ejected because the regime did not like his report. What I cannot tell, is whether these correspondents are exercising a rare dose of honesty in the way that they are reporting what is taking place. However, I do see comments about “not being able to verify” what they are being told. At least in Libya, especially amongst those who are seeing the fighting first hand, there is a rare dose of honesty.

What I note is that there are three fronts where there is fighting. One front is the town of Misrata. Another front is to the west and into the mountains and the other extends from Benghazi to Brega. Misrata has achieved small victories, but has suffered many setbacks, and the same is true with regard to Brega, as well as the front involving the mountain regions to the west. This is the region that covers Zintan, as well as the route to Zawiyah. It is this last front coming from the mountains where there have been small gains which sees the rebels pushing towards Zawiyah and then on to Tripoli. This is the group that consists mostly of Berbers, who are a natural tribal enemy of Gadhafi.

Buried in the reports are snippets of information that suggest Gadhafi is perhaps recognizing that he is on his last legs. There seems to be an upsurge in the “concessions” i.e. the suggestions of an “election” supervised by the U.N. and the African Union for the people to decide if Gadhafi should go. Of course this suggestion should be rejected because, as we have seen in past referendums in many countries those “elections” can be fixed. We have also seen where the result of such a referendum has ended in violence because the regime has not liked the result – East Timor is a very good example, where the people wanted their independence, but the Indonesians did not want to let go and violence erupted ending in a massacre of the Catholic population. Some more recent examples involve the Ivory Coast and Southern Sudan. Also, the African Union is extremely corrupt, and they are in the pay of Gadhafi, they are not what I would call a neutral group with regard to Libya. If they had anything to do with such a referendum then the results would definitely be corrupt. (It reminds me of the Democrats in the USA and the ALP in Australia).

Also buried in the reports is information about the state of the regime, that people are deserting and the inner circle is shrinking. I have seen hints that when the time comes many more will desert at the very last minute which would spell the end of Gadhafi. I assume that the timing might coincide with any push by the rebels towards the capital.  Some people remain pro-Gadhafi because they are being paid. Others are simply fed up and want to return to normal life.

One thing I have not emphasized enough is that Libya at this point in time is a Communist or Marxist nation. These people who are against Gadhafi are also against Communism and Marxism. They want a return to the prosperity that they experienced prior to the Gadhafi coup. This might explain the prominence of the old Libyan flag, a sign that this is not an Islamist revolution, but one that is based upon something else.



About Aussie

Married with children. Bachelor of Economics and Commerce, Melb 1975
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