There are plenty of reports regarding the possible out come in Libya. We are on the cusp of change, but that change could come at a price. The Libyans within the NTC are keen to avoid the situation that arose in Iraq. They persisted with the stricture that there were to be no foreign boots on the ground. NATO has given support from the air, but not on the ground.
The reason for this stricture is very clear, they want to avoid giving an opportunity to the Islamists – the Muslim Brotherhood and Al Qaeda – to cause massive disruption for their own ends.
The Telegraph UK has an excellent report on the subject and it is well worth a read. In part it says:
The elephant in the corner during the Libyan conflict has been the Muslim Brotherhood and other backers of the Islamist agenda. Their presence flashed briefly into the headlines around the assassination of General Younes a month ago but the conflict otherwise has been conspicuous by their absence. The arrival now of western peacekeepers or aid workers in Libya would provide exactly the pretext that enabled al-Qaeda to characterise the Iraqi intervention as a western violation of Islamic space. Thus far western influence has been confined to support from the air and sea with the boots on the ground being filled by Libyan feet.
This measured and calibrated support must be rolled forward into the post conflict phase. Of course it is in the West’s interests to see a stable Libya in the future – not least because of that country’s oil reserves – but the overriding motivation must be to see a stable Libya, led by a broadly based government that represents the interests of the vast majority of the Libyan people. The NTC recognise the need to provide this type of leadership, the trick now is how to enable that.
Just one thing should be noted here: Iran backs the Muslim Brotherhood, and Iran has been backing Daffy Duck. On the other hand Al Qaeda have been very quiet about what is happening in Libya. There have been very few pronouncements about either side in the conflict. The problem, as I would see it, is not Al Qaeda or Muslim Brotherhood, but their backers such as Iran.